Warning: Illegal string offset 'html' in /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php on line 909

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php:909) in /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 114

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php:909) in /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 127

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php:909) in /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 136

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php:909) in /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 137

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php:909) in /home3/loanuniv/public_html/forums/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 141
Where does everyone see interest rates goin? - LoanUniverse Community

Jump to content


Where does everyone see interest rates goin?


5 replies to this topic

#1 Guest_meagain_*

  • Guests

Posted 07 December 2004 - 10:57 PM

Would be interested in everyone's opinion/guess on where the rates are goin.....and where they will be next year

#2 loanuniverse

    Administrator

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,251 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 December 2004 - 08:47 AM

Dealing with bank commercial lending, I only look at a couple of rates and all of these rates have gone up in the last year.

Prime rate has gone up 1% in tandem with the fed funds rate.

LIBOR has gone up about one percent also.

The 5-year T-bill has gone up about 40 basis points.

Funny thing is that the mortgage rates are essentially at the same level that they were a year ago, and I know this is true because I just checked them.

Frankly, I would not be surprised if short-term rates that are relied more by commercial lending keep going up. The Fed increased the Fed funds four times in the last six months, and it could raise them again in 2005. I remember doing income producing property deals based in prime at 9%. That was not long ago so I can understand how we can get back to that number in just a couple of years.

If I knew how to predict interest rates, I would be a very rich man, but I am going to pick a number anyway. This time next year {December 2005}, Prime will be at 5.5%

#3 Commercial Lender

    Sr. Credit Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 218 posts
  • Location:New York

Posted 09 December 2004 - 08:59 PM

From a commercial prespective, i expect a 25 Basis point hike on Dec 14th when the Fed meets. And i def agree with admin that we will see prime reach 5.5-5.75 by Aug of next year before coming down. Of course LIBOR will follow eventually.....One would expect this to put a dampe on the lending industry but i cant say that i am seeing commercial volume go decrease. It has not only remained steady but is growing.

#4 avatarfi

    Full-Time Teller

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 12 posts
  • Location:Seattle, WA
  • Interests:Hiking, Outdoors, Web Development, Politics, Blogging

Posted 10 December 2004 - 02:08 PM

I'm not sure that commercial follows interest rates as directly as the residential sector does. I anticipate a growth in commercial real estate lending and construction over the next 1-2 years at least, while the residential market is due for a slowing of growth at the least.

#5 Commercial Lender

    Sr. Credit Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 218 posts
  • Location:New York

Posted 15 December 2004 - 09:40 PM

I agree with you that growth will be there. We are seeing business increase despite the rate but as i and (everyone west on me on Wall street expected) a 25 bps hike did go in to effect. I suspect they will skip the next meeting and then add another 25 Bps just to have an insurance policy in their pocket. The fed so far has done a great job hinting and letting the markets a have aheads up on the hikes. We have the next few months to see what heppens with the currency situation and the war.

#6 Commercial Lender

    Sr. Credit Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 218 posts
  • Location:New York

Posted 15 January 2005 - 01:39 PM

Getting ready for another rate hike on Feb 1/2 for 25 bps.





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users